The Cycle
"Grains tend to trade at or near their cost of production until there is a supply disruption at which point prices historically have moved dramatically higher.
Over time as production increases and/or demand decreases, inventories are rebuilt and prices trend back toward the cost of production once again.”
– Sal Gilbertie
Stage 1
Prices trade at or near the cost of production
Stage 2
Prices Advance Amid supply/demand imbalance
Stage 3
Supplies build due to increased output and prices head back toward the cost of production
3
$3.50
3x
Understanding the Golden Grain Cycle
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